FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief: large production keeps global stocks at near-record level

FAO’s latest outlook for global cereal supply and demand in 2017/18 remains favourable as demand is projected to fall slightly short of the anticipated production level, allowing global stocks to remain around their record-high opening levels.

FAO currently forecasts world cereal production in 2017 at 2 594 million tonnes, 5 million tonnes lower than the May forecast and down 14.1 million tonnes (0.5 percent) year-on-year. The monthly decrease is mostly the result of deteriorating production prospects for coarse grains and, to a lesser extent, for rice.

World cereal utilization in 2017/18 is projected at a record level of 2 584 million tonnes, up 13 million tonnes (0.5 percent) from 2016/17. This forecast stands 11 million tonnes below May expectations, largely reflecting downward adjustments made to historical wheat and maize feed estimates, particularly for China. On an annual basis, total wheat utilization is projected to decline by 0.4 percent from 2016/17, whereas the total uses of coarse grains and rice are expected to grow by 0.8 percent and 1.2 percent, respectively.

FAO’s May forecast of world cereal stocks by the end of seasons in 2018 has been raised by 14 million tonnes and now stands at 703 million tonnes, up marginally from the 2017 record high.

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